2012 presidential essay

Question will be, is he a Flake?

Table of Contents

I hope not. Would much prefer that Mitt focus on Border Security and so many other things where he can be helpful. He should be happy for all Republicans. Trump responded on Wednesday morning asking if Romney were "a Flake," referring to Jeff Flake , the retiring GOP senator from Arizona who has been a sharp critic of the president. Romney and Trump have had a publicly volatile relationship, going back to the presidential campaign when Romney re-emerged in national politics to call Trump "a phony, a fraud," who was "playing the members of the American public for suckers.

Then-candidate Trump punched back, saying that Romney had begged for Trump's endorsement during his own presidential run against former President Barack Obama. In a widely perceived effort at revenge through public embarrassment after the November election, Trump made a spectacle of dining with Romney as he weighed his choice for secretary of state, only to give the job to Rex Tillerson.

And in May of last year, Romney told NBC News that he does not consider the president a role model for his grandchildren. In the op-ed published online Tuesday, Romney credited Trump with having some positive policy and hiring agendas, but said "policies and appointments are only a part of a presidency. Romney's salvo places him in a unique position among GOP members of the Senate. With Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee retiring, the remaining Republicans in the chamber have largely shied away from criticizing Trump.

Romney telegraphed that he intends to be more outspoken. While saying he would not address each one of Trump's more controversial comments and Tweets, he pledged to "speak out against significant statements or actions that are divisive, racist, sexist, anti-immigrant, dishonest or destructive to democratic institutions.

As it regards Trump, Romney said, "I will act as I would with any president, in or out of my party: I will support policies that I believe are in the best interest of the country and my state, and oppose those that are not. The truth is MittRomney lacked the ability to save this nation. The gap between Latinos and whites was smaller — twenty-two percentage points for the noncovered jurisdictions and thirty-three percentage points for the covered jurisdictions.

As compared to the twenty-year trend that preceded it, racial polarization increased in the presidential election. In both the covered and noncovered states, Barack Obama received a large, above-average share of the minority vote, such that the white-black and white-Latino gap increased. However, in the covered states, his voteshare among whites dropped two points from the historical average tying the figure in , we should note. In contrast, in the noncovered states, he increased his white voteshare by six percentage points. The election highlights how racial polarization — the difference between the minority voteshare and white voteshare received by the minority-preferred candidate — can increase either through a decline in the white voteshare received by the candidate or through an increase in the minority voteshare received or both.

In the noncovered states, Barack Obama increased his voteshare among whites and minorities. In the noncovered states his share of the white vote was below average for a Democrat, while his share of the minority vote was well above average, especially among African Americans. The exit polls illustrate that the jump in white support he received was mainly due to increases in the noncovered areas — the big exception being Virginia where he received eight points more of the white voteshare than did Kerry.

However, in several covered states, white support for Obama dropped dramatically from four years earlier. This method is critical in comparing with previous years, because the national exit poll was not taken in all states in In particular, only four of the covered states Arizona, Floria, Mississippi, and Virginia were in the exit poll sample. In order to encompass all of the covered states, we analyze the aggregate election results, rather than the exit polls.

We can display the regressions as both a table and a graph. Each measure is helpful in assessing racial polarization and comparing polarization between the covered and noncovered counties. As is clear from Figure B and Table 3, racial polarization according to all three statistics has been increasing in the covered jurisdictions over the last twelve years. The Y-intercept or constant has gone lower each year: from 0.

Consistent with the fact that Obama won a higher share of the minority vote, the slope or steepness of the regression line and R-squared have increased considerably in the two Obama elections as compared to their predecessors, and the differences remain great between the covered and noncovered jurisdictions. This suggests that racial composition is not only a better predictor of voteshare in the covered counties than the noncovered counties, but that it is becoming an increasingly better predictor of voteshare over time.

In other words, if all one knew was the racial composition of a county, one can more accurately predict the voteshare of Obama in than for any candidate in the previous three elections. As striking as the above data may be, sophisticated observers might reduce these findings to the well-known story that whites in the South have been steadily fleeing the Democratic Party over time. An active debate exists in voting rights caselaw and scholarship concerning whether a high correlation between race and partisanship should allay concerns about racial polarization.

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Fear of a Black President - The Atlantic

Our article demonstrated this in two ways. Even when controlling for party, ideology, church attendance, religiosity, union membership, age, income, and education, residence in a covered state remained a statistically significant negative factor in predicting the vote choice of whites in the election, but not in the election. After controlling for all of the factors mentioned above, we still found that whites in the covered states were less likely to vote for President Obama than for Hillary Clinton. In other words, even when limiting the analysis to Democrats — that is, taking party out of the equation — differences in the behavior of white voters in the covered and noncovered states remained.

To confirm our prior findings from the survey data and our current findings from the ecological regressions, we turn to an analysis of the relevant data from the Survey of the Performance of American Elections SPAE. The SPAE includes approximately voters from every state in the country and is chiefly used to compare the voting experience between different states. Even with roughly 9, respondents, individual state effects might be difficult to unearth.

However, by aggregating the covered and noncovered states together we can, at least, get a sense of whether partisanship accounts for all of the racial differences between voters in the covered and noncovered states. We should also note that our findings have now been confirmed by analysis of newly available data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Survey. As Table 4 below confirms, the race of the voter continues to constitute a statistically significant factor in determining vote choice even after controlling for party. Even in the stripped-down first regression, race plays a more important role in the covered than the noncovered states in determining vote choice, as the substantially higher R-squared demonstrates.

Reasonable people can disagree about the relevance of the election or even racially polarized voting patterns to the constitutionality of the coverage formula for section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. If anything, the opposite is true. To be sure, the coverage formula does not capture every racially polarized jurisdiction, nor does every county covered by section 5 outrank every noncovered county on this score. There can be no doubt that the covered jurisdictions differ, as a group, from the noncovered jurisdictions in their rates of racially polarized voting.


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There can also be no doubt that voting in the covered jurisdictions as a whole is becoming more, not less, polarized over time. Brief for Nathaniel Persily et al. Austin Mun. Post , Apr.

Election 2012 Marks the End of Evangelical Dominance in Politics

Progress , N. Times , Apr. Voting Rights: Hearings on H. Frank Chelf, Member, H. See Heather K.


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See Table 1 and Figure A for a summary of our findings. All calculations were performed using sample weights provided by the exit poll in the relevant file. The exit poll results are weighted to reflect the complexity of the sampling design and to take into account the different probabilities of selecting a precinct and of selecting a voter within each precinct.

How Obama Won: Election 2012 Breakdown

The weights are defined such that the exit poll results equal the final tabulated vote within geographic regions of the states or nation. Calculations were made for each state using the within-state weights provided by the exit polls. Next, aggregate calculations were made for VRA and non-VRA regions, weighting each state by the population of interest i. See Ansolabehere et al. As noted, Obama improved significantly among whites in Virginia, and in heavily covered states such as North Carolina and New York, he performed much better than previously.

Racial data by county for each presidential election was calculated according to the data files from the U. Census Bureau. For the election, the decennial census was used. For the and elections, the racial composition of each county was linearly interpolated using the and data. Other methods, such as using the American Community Survey racial data, reveal similar results. Standard errors are in parentheses. All cell entries are statistically significant. Covered counties are listed in Section 5 Covered Jurisdictions , U.


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Interestingly, when controlling for party, Hispanic race is not significant in for the covered jurisdictions but becomes significant in This is no doubt due to the fact that President Obama increased his Hispanic voteshare in while losing Anglo-white voteshare. Apr 26, Harv. Table 1. Figure A. Table 2. Figure B. Table 3. Table 4. Relationship of Race and Party to Votechoice for Obama, and

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